There are few moral absolutes when it comes to U.S. foreign policy: support Israel, keep North Korea from testing nuclear weapons, do not negotiate with terrorists, and oppose Cuba. Of all the issues that divide the Democrats and Republicans, these are a few that unite them.
In the last year, however, one of these laws of behavior has changed. President Obama's treatment of U.S.-Cuba relations has been nothing short of revolutionary, especially given the consistency of the policies of his predecessors. In the most dramatic deviation from the status quo, last week Obama was the first sitting president to visit the island in over 85 years.
Much of the tension between Cuba and the United States is a remnant of the Cold War. The '60s brought Fidel Castro to power, the Bay of Pigs invasion, and the Cuban missile crisis. Through all of these conflicts, ideological division over the values of capitalism and communism kept the United States and Cuba tied to opposite sides of a great power conflict. Yet even with the conclusion of the Cold War, relations did not normalize. Cuba remained on the list of state sponsors of terror through 2015, and the United States has cut off trade relations with Cuba since 1960. Why the lingering tensions? More importantly, why has Obama taken a step away from tradition?
At least part of the discord between the United States and Cuba is due to the ideological differences between the countries. This explanation only carried us so far, however, because the United States carries out strong alliances with a diverse array of ideological opponents, most notably China. The more important determinant of U.S. foreign policy in this arena actually stems from domestic politics, namely the powerful block of Cuban voters in South Florida. The fact that Cubans make up 5 percent of the swing state's population means they alone have the power to decide a close election. Historically, Cuban Americans have not wanted anything to do with Havana, and so neither have U.S. elected officials.
In recent years, these trends have started to change. Young Cuban-Americans are not necessarily opposed to rebuilding ties with Cuba. On the issue of the embargo against Cuba, for instance, young voters are much more likely to support détente. In 2015 polling, 51 percent of respondents ages 18-29 opposed the embargo, while only 36 percent of Cuban-Americans over the age of 64 thought the embargo should end. Young Cuban-Americans were also much more likely to plan to visit the island and to support the Democratic party, which has been slightly less hostile towards Havana.
All of these changes have allowed Obama to propose a more open relationship between the two countries. As Obama argues, for the last 50 years isolation has failed to bring human rights and democracy to Cuba and therefore, 'it's time for a new approach.' Clearly, one of the key components of this approach was Obama's recent visit, during which the president met with Cuban president Raúl Castro, spoke with Cuban political dissidents, encouraged entrepreneurship, and called on Cubans to work for freedom and human rights.
Aside from this most recent milestone, the Obama administration has made progress in other areas of the relationship since assuming office. At the outset of Obama's term, the President increased freedom of travel between Cuba and the United States and allowed Cuban-Americans to send more remittances back home. The Obama administration also engaged in secret negotiations, supported by Pope Francis, to swap prisoners, remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terror, and reestablish diplomatic relations between countries. Each of these endeavors was successful.
In spite of these successes, lingering tensions remain. In the follow-up to Obama's visit, former Cuban president Fidel Castro criticized the Untied States for its aggression towards Havana. Old wounds do not die easily, and it may be some time before relations are fully normalized. Obama hopes that the future will be a place where a U.S. president can visit Cuba without political fallout.
To do so would greatly improve regional relations by eliminating the greatest rivalry in the Americas. Likewise, increased connection would end a period of 'punitive diplomacy' and foster greater freedom for the Cuban people with the flow of values and resources from the United States to Cuba. Hopefully the 2016 president can take Obama's policies to heart and continue on this path to normalization.
